Why Mechanized Warfare Will Still Be Decisive in the Next Land War

Mechanized warfare is not obsolete but has become conditional, requiring specific "windows of opportunity" to succeed on the modern battlefield. Drawing lessons from the Russo-Ukrainian War, the analysis shows that advanced surveillance, drones, and electronic warfare have limited the effectiveness of large-scale armored assaults. Future success will depend on creating and exploiting brief moments of advantage through deception, surprise, and combined-arms coordination. The U.S. Army should therefore balance investments between traditional platforms and enabling technologies like unmanned systems and AI to control the narrow conditions under which mechanized attacks can still succeed.