Why Many Underestimated Russia’s Invasion Risk

Many analysts and observers underestimated the risk of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 because they modeled Russia as a typical state where domestic elites constrain the leader. This assumption failed to account for how Vladimir Putin's long tenure allowed him to consolidate power, purge dissenters, and surround himself with loyalists. This process of entrenchment significantly reduced internal political constraints, granting him the latitude to initiate a high-risk war that many believed was not politically survivable. Therefore, leader tenure and power personalization should be treated as critical variables when assessing a state's risk tolerance for major strategic decisions.