Two Dangerous Assumptions in U.S. Defense Planning and How to Fix Them

U.S. defense planning suffers from two dangerous assumptions regarding a potential conflict with China in the Indo-Pacific. The first is that American forces can seamlessly transition from deterrence to war in the first island chain, and the second is that communication and supply lines will be sustained. Drawing historical parallels to pre-World War II planning against Japan, the analysis warns that decades of military dominance have created strategic blind spots. With China now a peer competitor, it is critical to rigorously re-evaluate the mobility, protection, and sustainment needs of forward forces. Planners must avoid overly optimistic assumptions and ensure the U.S. can realistically reinforce and supply its troops to prevent a catastrophic failure.