Twice Bombed, Still Nuclear: The Limits of Force Against Iran’s Atomic Program

In a speculative 2026 scenario, the United States and Israel launch a second military campaign against Iran's nuclear program, explicitly aiming for regime change. Despite degrading infrastructure, these strikes fail to account for Iran's existing stockpile of highly enriched uranium and are met with pre-planned, decentralized retaliation. Military force alone cannot resolve the proliferation threat, as it makes nuclear material harder to track and eliminates diplomatic pathways. Whether the Iranian regime falls, collapses, or survives, significant nuclear security risks remain, including the potential for a regional proliferation cascade.