Trump’s Venezuelan Regime Change: Why Do People Keep Getting Him Wrong on Foreign Policy?

Following a hypothetical U.S. military operation that captured Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, many national security experts were proven wrong in their predictions. The analysis explores why so many analysts failed to anticipate President Trump's decision to pursue regime change. Five key reasons are identified for this misreading, including the false assumption that Trump has a recognizable foreign policy doctrine and underestimating internal administration power struggles. Analysts also overweighted Trump's perceived caution and held a narrow definition of what a modern regime change operation could look like. Ultimately, Trump's foreign policy is described as emerging from friction and improvisation rather than a coherent, predictable strategy.