The Imperial Trap: Russia’s War in Ukraine and the Lessons of Failed Conquests

Russia's war in Ukraine is unfolding similarly to its past failed imperial wars, such as the Crimean War, Russo-Japanese War, and the Soviet-Afghan War. These historical conflicts were characterized by underestimating the enemy, misjudging the international response, and placing immense strain on Russia's political and economic systems. While Ukraine is currently facing significant challenges, Russia's own willingness to engage in substantive negotiations suggests it is also feeling the mounting pressures of a prolonged conflict. Putin's Russia exhibits many of the same structural weaknesses as its predecessors, suggesting the war could have enduring negative consequences for the stability of the regime.