The Day After: What Successful Regime Change in Venezuela Would Really Take

A potential U.S. military intervention for regime change in Venezuela would face significant obstacles and is unlikely to result in a quick victory. Venezuela possesses a dense air defense network and a large military, while regional support for an invasion is almost nonexistent. President Nicolás Maduro has spent years creating overlapping security and intelligence structures to "coup-proof" his regime, tying senior military officers to his survival through illicit rents. The aftermath of any intervention would be a complex stabilization mission in a heavily armed society, further complicated by the influence of external actors like Russia and Cuba. Even a campaign limited to airstrikes would likely fail to trigger a clean regime collapse and would instead outsource chaos to the Venezuelan people and their neighbors.