The Danger in the Middle: Will Xi’s Purges Increase the Risk of War?

Chinese leader Xi Jinping's recent purges of dozens of senior People's Liberation Army officers have temporarily reduced the risk of war over Taiwan. The loss of experienced commanders and disruption to the high command will likely make Xi less confident in his military's immediate capabilities for the next one to two years. However, the danger of conflict is expected to increase significantly in the medium term, from the late 2020s to the early 2030s. By then, a new generation of more competent commanders will be in place, but their reduced political power will make them less able to push back against a potentially war-optimistic Xi, who will have consolidated his control over the military.