The Chinese Yoke: Russia’s Return to Vassalship

Russia is becoming structurally dependent on China to sustain its war in Ukraine and maintain basic stability, a dynamic reminiscent of its historical vassalship. This dependency is built on China acting as a buyer for sanctioned hydrocarbons, a source for technology and goods, and a financial facilitator. After the war, Russia will likely attempt to reduce this reliance by developing alternatives with countries like Iran, India, and Turkey, but will be hampered by post-war recession and potential political succession crises. China may exploit this situation to influence Russia's future leadership, balancing its desire for a subordinate partner against its stated policy of non-interference in other states' internal affairs.