Sprinters, Marathoners & Skeptics on the Future of AI & Power

Perspectives on artificial intelligence's impact on national security are divided into three camps: Sprinters, Marathoners, and Skeptics. Sprinters believe imminent artificial general intelligence (AGI) will grant a permanent geopolitical advantage, demanding an all-out U.S. effort against rivals like China. Marathoners, the dominant view, see a long-term, sector-by-sector technological competition, while Skeptics warn against overinvestment in AGI hype. The United States should currently adopt the flexible marathoner approach to balance the risks of overreach and underinvestment in its strategic competition with China.