Seatbelts for Speeders: Why Beijing Ignores Washington’s Red Phone

The United States has persistently pursued crisis communication hotlines with China, modeled after the successful U.S.-Soviet links from the Cold War. Despite multiple agreements since the 1990s, Beijing rarely utilizes these channels during actual crises, such as the 2001 EP-3 incident or the 2023 balloon incident. China appears to view the negotiation of these mechanisms as a diplomatic tool to restore relations after a crisis, rather than a practical means for de-escalation. Experts suggest Beijing is skeptical of these 'guardrails,' believing they might legitimize U.S. military operations that China opposes. The U.S. should therefore reset its expectations regarding the functionality of these hotlines during active confrontations.