Running to Stand Still: Russian Nuclear Modernization after New START

With the expiration of the New START treaty, formal strategic nuclear arms control between the United States and Russia has ended. While some predict a new arms race, Russia is likely constrained by its defense industry, economy, and the costs of the war in Ukraine. Moscow will probably seek to maintain nuclear parity as cheaply as possible rather than engaging in a major quantitative buildup. The future of arms control is now complicated by China's growing arsenal, forcing the United States to adapt its nuclear strategy for a three-body problem.