Regime Change in Iran, Underpants Gnomes, and the Phase II Problem

The stated U.S. and Israeli goal of regime change in Iran following a hypothetical war is unlikely to succeed. This objective is compared to the "underpants gnomes" business plan from South Park, highlighting a failure to plan for the crucial second phase: how to get from an air campaign to a popular overthrow. The success of any popular uprising hinges on whether the state's security apparatus defects and turns on the regime, a dynamic that an air campaign does not directly influence. Iran's institutionalized autocracy and well-resourced security forces make such a defection improbable, meaning the regime is likely to survive despite external military pressure and internal protests.