Putin Is Not Trapped: Why Regime Survival Does Not Depend on Victory

The widespread assumption that Vladimir Putin's regime cannot survive a military defeat in Ukraine is fundamentally flawed. The Russian political system is structured to be highly resilient to such outcomes, with elite loyalty maintained through a personalist system of patronage and coercion. Sanctions have paradoxically reinforced this dynamic by making elites more dependent on the state for their wealth and security. Therefore, US and Western policies based on the fear of triggering regime collapse by cornering Putin are built on an underdeveloped premise, as military setbacks do not automatically lead to political breakdown.