Putin Is Not Trapped: Why Regime Survival Does Not Depend on Victory

The common belief that Vladimir Putin's regime cannot survive a defeat in Ukraine is a flawed premise that has shaped Western policy. This view, which suggests Putin is trapped and cannot afford to lose, underpins strategies ranging from cautious escalation management to seeking a politically survivable peace deal for Moscow. However, the connection between military setbacks and authoritarian collapse is weak, as Russia's personalist system is structured to prevent elite defection and withstand external pressure. Sanctions have actually deepened elite dependence on the Kremlin, making the regime more durable and less susceptible to battlefield outcomes than is often assumed.