No Cause for Alarm: The Case for a Measured Response to Russian Air Incursions

Recent Russian drone and aircraft incursions into NATO airspace in Poland, Romania, and Estonia have ignited a debate on the appropriate response. Some argue these are deliberate tests of NATO's resolve requiring a firm redline, while others see them as harassment and warn that overreacting could provoke a wider war. The analysis suggests a measured approach is best, as the incursions are likely not a prelude to a full-scale conflict with Europe. Instead of major posture changes, European nations should invest in inexpensive, layered counter-drone technologies and increase regional coordination to manage the threat. This strategy would address the drone capability gap without risking a direct military confrontation between NATO and Russia.