Iraq’s 2025 Election: A Recalibration of Power, Not a Rupture of the Status Quo

Iraq is preparing for its November 2025 parliamentary elections, which could offer political stability and a more predictable posture on the international stage. Incumbent Prime Minister Mohammed Shea al Sudani has emerged as a frontrunner, balancing competing interests and projecting a unifying national vision, including managing relations with both Washington and Tehran. However, the election is unlikely to fundamentally disrupt the entrenched ethno-sectarian power-sharing system known as muhasasa, which perpetuates corruption and patronage. The outcome will significantly influence Iraq's role in the Middle East, determining if it can emerge as a stabilizing regional actor or remain mired in internal political struggles.