Iran After the Supreme Leader

Iran confronts a critical juncture defined by internal exhaustion, external pressure, and the inevitable succession of its aging Supreme Leader. The country's hybrid political system, where elected institutions are subordinate to unelected bodies, has stifled past reform efforts and created a legitimacy crisis. The impending transition may be too unstable to simply reproduce another singular supreme leader, even for the ruling elite. A potential outcome is a de facto shift in authority toward elected institutions, not through formal change, but as a pragmatic accommodation to manage the crisis and ensure stability.