How Turkey sees the protests in Iran

Turkey is cautiously observing protests in Iran, prioritizing regional stability and the country's territorial integrity over the potential collapse of its rival's government. Turkish officials, like Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, believe the demonstrations send a strong message to Tehran but do not anticipate a regime change, while also expressing concern over foreign manipulation by actors like Israel. Ankara's primary fear is that a chaotic unraveling of Iran could trigger a refugee crisis and empower Kurdish militant groups, such as the PKK's Iranian arm PJAK, along its border. This stance reflects a strategic calculation that a stable, albeit rival, Iran is preferable to a fractured and unpredictable neighbor.