How NATO’s Air Defense Future Is Unfolding

An analysis revisits three potential visions for NATO's air and missile defense originally proposed in 2024. Of the three scenarios—a NATO-led approach, a European-led strategy, or the status quo—the European-led vision has advanced the furthest. This is primarily demonstrated by the growth of the German-led European Sky Shield Initiative (ESSI), which has expanded its membership and spurred billions in new defense procurement. Other programs like the French-Italian SAMP/T system and the SAFE initiative further incentivize European collaboration, driven by a desire for strategic autonomy and economies of scale.