Double-Edged Swords: How Military Purges Shape Authoritarian Appetite for War

Military purges in authoritarian regimes, such as Xi Jinping's recent removal of senior generals in China, create contradictory effects on the likelihood of war. On one hand, removing powerful military elites can free a leader from internal constraints, emboldening them to take greater risks like initiating conflict. Conversely, these same purges degrade the military's combat effectiveness and cohesion, making a leader less likely to start a war they might lose. U.S. strategists must therefore analyze both the leader's increased risk tolerance and the military's reduced capability to accurately assess the likelihood of conflict.