Double-Edged Swords: How Military Purges Shape Authoritarian Appetite for War

Military purges in authoritarian states present a double-edged sword, influencing the decision to wage war in two contradictory ways. By removing influential generals, a leader can consolidate power and feel emboldened to act aggressively without internal opposition. Conversely, these same purges severely degrade the military's combat effectiveness and leadership, making a leader less likely to initiate a conflict with a weakened force. This tension means strategists must simultaneously track a leader's increased risk tolerance and their military's reduced capability to accurately gauge the threat of war.