Don’t Count Launches: Misreading Iran’s Drone Capacity

U.S. military claims of successfully degrading Iran's drone capacity, based on a reported 83% drop in launches, are likely flawed. This assessment mistakenly equates a change in enemy behavior with the physical destruction of its capabilities, an analytical error seen in past conflicts like the Gulf War. There are several alternative explanations for the reduced launch rate, including Iran tactically recalibrating, stockpiling for larger attacks, or shifting focus to the Strait of Hormuz. Overconfidence based on these misleading indicators could lead Washington to miscalculate and dangerously escalate the conflict.