Disperse to Survive: The Logic of French Forward Deterrence

French President Emmanuel Macron has introduced a new nuclear doctrine of “forward deterrence,” which involves deploying French nuclear-capable aircraft to allied European countries. This strategy is not meant to extend a nuclear guarantee like NATO's nuclear sharing, but rather to improve the survivability of France’s airborne nuclear forces. By dispersing the aircraft, France aims to complicate an adversary's targeting calculations and protect its assets from preemptive missile strikes on their main bases. The concept is more analogous to military strategies like the U.S. Air Force's agile combat employment, which uses dispersal to preserve strike capability.