Disperse to Survive: The Logic of French Forward Deterrence

French President Emmanuel Macron has introduced a new nuclear doctrine of “forward deterrence,” which involves deploying French Strategic Air Forces to allied European nations. The primary purpose of this strategy is to enhance the survivability of France's airborne nuclear assets by dispersing them across the continent, making them less vulnerable to missile strikes. This approach is compared to agile combat employment concepts, where aircraft are distributed across multiple locations to complicate enemy targeting. Unlike U.S. forward deployments or NATO nuclear-sharing, the French doctrine is not meant to extend a nuclear guarantee but to preserve its own strategic capabilities during a crisis.