Disarming Hamas: Lessons from U.S. Efforts to Demobilize Militias in Iraq

Disarming Hamas in Gaza presents challenges similar to the U.S. effort to demobilize militias in Iraq after 2003. The experience in Iraq demonstrates that armed factions will not disarm unless they face total defeat or are offered a credible path to personal survival and political relevance. Factions like the disenfranchised Sunnis and the Sadrist movement refused to participate in demobilization due to fear, grievances, and the lack of a trustworthy governing authority to ensure their safety. Consequently, any realistic plan to disarm Hamas hinges on first creating a governing and security structure that can offer its members a future other than fear and retribution. Without this foundational element, calls for rapid demobilization are unlikely to succeed.