Deterrence Won’t Fail in the Taiwan Strait — It Will Be Bypassed

Recent large-scale Chinese military exercises around Taiwan are not primarily rehearsals for an invasion but rather demonstrations of a strategy of paralysis. This approach aims to immobilize Taiwan and its allies through sustained pressure, ambiguity, and delay, bypassing traditional deterrence models. By exploiting the time it takes for coalitions to decide on a response, Beijing seeks to exhaust decision-making processes, fracture alliances, and reshape perceptions of risk without crossing a clear threshold for war. This strategy contrasts with Western invasion-centric deterrence, which anticipates a discrete, large-scale assault. The ultimate goal is to achieve political outcomes like coerced accommodation by creating economic and political crises for Taiwan long before a military intervention can be effectively mounted.