Conflict and Consequences

Israel has announced the killing of Ali Larijani, the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, which Tehran later confirmed. This follows the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei during a U.S.-Israeli offensive, removing the regime's top coordinator and strategist. While successors are in place, the mounting losses of senior leadership may challenge the regime's cohesion and create internal fractures. The conflict is also interconnected with the Russo-Ukrainian War, as Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz has caused a spike in oil prices. This situation benefits Russia, especially as the U.S. has temporarily waived sanctions on Russian oil sales.