Chicken Versus Bumper Cars in Conflict Escalation

Iran's April 2024 missile and drone attack on Israel may exemplify a new form of 'performative aggression,' designed for spectacle rather than destruction. This strategy is compared to a 'game of bumper cars,' where a state launches an attack expecting it to be intercepted by the defender's robust air defenses, in contrast to the high-stakes 'game of chicken.' Such performative strikes are de-escalatory in intent but create a new challenge for traditional deterrence models based on denial or punishment. Understanding whether these attacks are one-off events or part of a repeated game is crucial for crafting an effective defensive strategy against this ambiguous form of coercion.