Can More British and French Nuclear Cooperation Help Deter Russia?

Amid the war in Ukraine and uncertainty over U.S. commitment, European policymakers are exploring enhanced British and French nuclear cooperation to deter Russia. Historically, Russian military analysis viewed European deterrents as secondary to the U.S. arsenal, seeing the UK's as credible but dependent and France's as independent but not directed at Russia. This perception is changing, as Russia's 2022 invasion and French President Macron's proposals for a European nuclear umbrella have altered Moscow's calculations. Russian observers were surprised by France's outreach and now see its vital interests as including a European dimension. As a result of new Franco-British declarations, Moscow is now factoring this joint nuclear cooperation into its military and political planning.