Breaking Tehran’s Grip on Baghdad

Potential regime change in Tehran could offer Iraq an opportunity to reduce Iranian influence and assert its sovereignty. However, this would create immediate security challenges for Baghdad, including securing the border from fleeing Iranian officials and containing potential internal sectarian violence. Successfully managing these initial crises could set the stage for addressing the more complex issue of the Popular Mobilization Forces. The ultimate goal would be to disarm these powerful, Iran-backed militias, a task made more feasible if their patron in Tehran is weakened or removed.