Black Sea Regional Outlook for 2026

The Russo-Ukrainian War has elevated the global importance of the Black Sea region, with its future dynamics heavily dependent on the war's trajectory. Key trends to watch include potential maritime escalation, as demonstrated by Ukrainian drone strikes on tankers and subsequent Russian threats to commercial shipping. These actions have significant implications for global food security, insurance costs, and supply chains. Ukraine is urging NATO allies like Turkey, Romania, and Bulgaria to expand their trilateral demining mission into broader maritime patrols, but limited allied resolve makes further escalation a likely scenario.