America First, Europe Fourth

In a hypothetical second Trump term, Europe has been demoted to a fourth-tier strategic priority for the United States, ranking behind the Western Hemisphere, the Indo-Pacific, and the Middle East. This shift breaks with decades of U.S. grand strategy and is driven by the president's personalistic style and rejection of European security as a core U.S. interest. The administration's policies reflect this downgrade, including questioning NATO's Article 5 commitments, phasing out security assistance for states bordering Russia, and drafting a Ukraine-Russia peace plan that favors Moscow's demands. Despite occasional favorable statements about NATO, the overall strategic posture indicates a fundamental re-evaluation of the transatlantic alliance and America's role in European security.