After Maduro: Trump’s Managed Authoritarianism Trap in Venezuela

The Trump administration's approach to a post-Maduro Venezuela is a project of "managed authoritarianism," aiming to control the country's direction without direct rule. This strategy relies on compliant regime insiders and the existing state security apparatus to maintain order. The U.S. intends to use coercive leverage through control over oil access, sanctions relief, and the threat of legal prosecution against key figures. This policy is framed as a test of the 2025 National Security Strategy, which prioritizes transactional security and control over democracy promotion. The ultimate goal is to restructure Venezuela's power dynamics on U.S. terms, secure oil interests, and manage regional security without inheriting the costs of a collapsed state.