A Wargame to Take Taiwan, from China’s Perspective

An analytical wargame had international experts plan a Chinese invasion of Taiwan from Beijing's perspective, revealing potential flaws in U.S. strategic assumptions. The exercise suggested China might favor limited military action and political coercion over a full-scale amphibious assault to avoid triggering a direct war with the United States. Participants concluded that a more plausible Chinese strategy involves precision strikes against Taiwan followed by generous surrender terms, exploiting potential U.S. hesitancy to intervene if its own forces are not attacked. This approach accounts for the PLA's untested capabilities and prioritizes political victory while minimizing the risk of a wider conflict. The findings imply that effective deterrence must focus on building Taiwan's resilience to coercion, not just defending against an invasion.