A Closed Strait of Hormuz Risks a Global Food Security Crisis

A hypothetical war in Iran has exposed the strategic importance of urea, a key nitrogen fertilizer essential for staple grain production. The disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical transit point for a large portion of the world's seaborne urea trade, has caused prices to spike and threatens to create a global food crisis. While a fragile ceasefire may be in place, the risk of renewed conflict and a blockade keeps war risk premiums high and disrupts supply chains. Nations highly dependent on fertilizer imports, particularly in South Asia, Africa, and Latin America, face acute danger of food shortages and political instability. The crisis underscores how disruptions to industrial inputs for agriculture can have cascading effects on global food security and national stability.